在国家推进高质量发展的主题下，铝板带箔产品结构发生变化，龙头企业带动效应显现，细分领域发展迅猛。但在铝消费逐渐趋顶的大背景下，2023年铝板带箔市场也已出现传统消费明显回落、出口贸易壁垒复杂严峻、热点投资领域投资过热的问题，具体表现在当年铝板带及铝箔产量双双回落，出口量同比减少明显，加工费及产品利润进一步下滑，供应过剩类产品产能仍在持续扩张。进入2024年，铝板带箔加工费及价格将如何演变？供需结构又将呈现怎样的格局？笔者将从价格、供应、需求、进出口、产业结构等方面进行分析预测。

　　Under the theme of promoting high-quality development in the country, the structure of aluminum sheet, strip and foil products has changed, and the driving effect of leading enterprises has become apparent, with rapid development in segmented fields. However, against the backdrop of gradually peaking aluminum consumption, the aluminum plate, strip, and foil market has also experienced a significant decline in traditional consumption, complex and severe export trade barriers, and overheated investment in hot investment areas in 2023. Specifically, the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil both fell back that year, and the export volume decreased significantly year-on-year. Processing fees and product profits further declined, and the production capacity of products with oversupply continued to expand. How will the processing fees and prices of aluminum plates, strips, and foils evolve as we enter 2024? What kind of pattern will the supply and demand structure present? The author will analyze and predict from the aspects of price, supply, demand, import and export, industrial structure, etc.

　　一、铝板带箔品种2023年回顾与总结1.加工费持续下跌? 企业利润降至冰点?

　　1、 Review and Summary of Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil Varieties in 2023 1. Will Processing Costs Continue to Decline? Has the company's profit dropped to freezing point?

　　2023年以来，铝板带带箔市场已出现产能相对过剩、产品同质化严重、恶性竞争时有发生、行业内卷严重等问题，在此背景下，铝板带箔加工费均出现不同程度的下滑。

　　Since 2023, the aluminum sheet, strip, and foil market has experienced issues such as relative overcapacity, severe product homogenization, occasional vicious competition, and serious industry competition. Against this backdrop, the processing fees for aluminum sheet, strip, and foil have all experienced varying degrees of decline.

　　分品类来看，1060铝幕墙卷加工费为1400元/吨，较2022年底下降350元/吨；5052铝普板加工费为3300元/吨，较2022年底下降1400元/吨；PS板基加工费为2400元/吨，较2022年底下降200元/吨；易拉罐体料加工费3600元/吨，较2022年底下降2000元/吨，罐盖料6000元/吨，较2022年底下降3000元/吨.铝箔方面，食品包装箔加工费为8500元/吨，较2022年底下降2100元/吨；15μm电池箔加工费14000元/吨，较2022年底下降1000元/吨。

　　By category, the processing fee for 1060 aluminum curtain wall coils is 1400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for 5052 aluminum sheet is 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1400 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for PS board base is 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for can body materials is 3600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022. The processing fee for can lid materials is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022. In terms of aluminum foil, the processing fee for food packaging foil is 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2100 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for 15 μ m battery foil is 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022.

　　2.产能持续扩张? 热点投资领域投资过热

　　2. Will production capacity continue to expand? Hot investment areas with overheated investments

　　截至2023年12月，据Mysteel统计，中国铝板带箔建成产能约为2730万吨。与此同时，从规模上来看，河南、山东、江苏及浙江依旧是我国现阶段产能聚集地的前四名。?河南省为中国铝加工行业第一大省，铝板带箔企业超200家，产能共计1037.4万吨，占全国总产能38%；山东省产能491.4万吨，占全国产能18%；江苏总产能245.7万吨，占全国总产能的9%；浙江总产能191.1万吨，占全国总产能的7%。

　　As of December 2023, according to Mysteel statistics, the construction capacity of aluminum sheet, strip, and foil in China is approximately 27.3 million tons. At the same time, in terms of scale, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are still the top four production capacity clusters in China at present.? Henan Province is the largest province in China's aluminum processing industry, with over 200 aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises and a total production capacity of 10.374 million tons, accounting for 38% of the country's total production capacity; Shandong Province has a production capacity of 4.914 million tons, accounting for 18% of the national production capacity; Jiangsu has a total production capacity of 2.457 million tons, accounting for 9% of the country's total production capacity; The total production capacity of Zhejiang is 1.911 million tons, accounting for 7% of the country's total production capacity.

　　2023年铝板带箔企业产能规模集中化趋势愈加凸显，呈现区域集中性及规模积聚性特点。山东及河南两省凭借优越的原料优势，近年来产能规模不断扩大，河南省铝板带箔生产企业集中于郑州巩义、洛阳、焦作三地，山东省铝板带箔企业集中于滨州、聊城、龙口三地，且产能还处于上升通道中。

　　In 2023, the trend of concentrated production capacity of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises will become increasingly prominent, showing regional concentration and scale accumulation characteristics. With superior raw material advantages, Shandong and Henan provinces have continuously expanded their production capacity in recent years. Aluminum plate, strip, and foil production enterprises in Henan province are concentrated in Gongyi, Luoyang, and Jiaozuo in Zhengzhou, while those in Shandong province are concentrated in Binzhou, Liaocheng, and Longkou, and their production capacity is still on the rise.

　　此外，龙头企业产能扩张明显，而中小微企业产能占比呈现下滑趋势。

　　In addition, leading enterprises have significantly expanded their production capacity, while the proportion of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises has shown a downward trend.

　　铝板带箔产能依旧处于快速扩张通道中，且热点领域有投资过热倾向。据Mysteel统计，目前中国明确在建的铝板带箔项目共计21个，设计产能达316.8万吨；拟建的铝板带箔项目共计21个，设计产能达337.9万吨。其中，电池箔亦随着新能源汽车的快速发展而成为铝加工行业备受关注的明星产品，多家铝板带箔企业因而积极扩张生产规模，大量新增项目如雨后春笋般冒了出来，其中超过160万吨与电池箔相关。

　　The production capacity of aluminum sheet, strip and foil is still in a rapid expansion channel, and there is a tendency for overheated investment in hot areas. According to Mysteel statistics, there are currently a total of 21 aluminum plate, strip, and foil projects under construction in China, with a designed production capacity of 3.168 million tons; There are a total of 21 proposed aluminum sheet, strip and foil projects with a designed production capacity of 3.379 million tons. Among them, battery foil has also become a star product in the aluminum processing industry with the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Many aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises have actively expanded their production scale as a result, and a large number of new projects have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, of which more than 1.6 million tons are related to battery foil.

　　二、铝板带箔品种2024年展望

　　2、 Outlook for Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil Varieties in 2024

　　供应方面，铝板带箔各品类产量变化分化趋势将愈加明显。我们认为新能源汽车板块中电池箔、钎焊箔、车身薄板将继续保持较高增速，家具家居及耐用消费品产量将保持稳定，而高端需求如C919大飞机、白车身、微通道等将有望高速发展。

　　In terms of supply, the trend of differentiated production changes in various categories of aluminum sheet, strip, and foil will become increasingly apparent. We believe that the battery foil, brazing foil, and body sheet in the new energy vehicle sector will continue to maintain a high growth rate, while the production of furniture, home furnishings, and durable consumer goods will remain stable. High end demand such as C919 large aircraft, white body, microchannels, etc. are expected to develop rapidly.

　　需求方面，建筑地产领域虽有“保交楼”政策支持，但仍难以给消费贡献增量；包装容器领域在“禁塑令”，人们生活水平不断提高以及环保意识不断等因素推动下，将继续保持稳定增长；交通运输领域受新能源汽车产业带动，保持最高增速，电池箔、车身薄板等产品将成为亮点；耐用消费领域空调的更新换代于2023年已基本完成24难再有大幅增长。

　　In terms of demand, although there is policy support for "guaranteed delivery of buildings" in the construction and real estate sector, it is still difficult to contribute incremental consumption; The field of packaging containers will continue to maintain stable growth driven by factors such as the "plastic ban", the continuous improvement of people's living standards, and the increasing awareness of environmental protection; Driven by the new energy vehicle industry, the transportation sector will maintain the highest growth rate, with products such as battery foil and vehicle body sheet becoming highlights; The replacement of air conditioners in the durable consumer sector has been basically completed by 2023, and there will be no significant growth in the next 24 years.

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